To illustrate the dilemma facing 1. FSV Mainz 05 this season, you only need to look at this one incident from their last home game against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Foals striker Haris Tabaković's header would more likely have resulted in a throw-in than a goal celebration for Borussia. However, his attempt with just under an hour on the clock rebounded off Mainz defender Danny da Costa's bottom and ended up in the back of the net. Instead of a hard-fought point, the 1-0 home defeat for the bottom side was sealed - true to the motto: if you're not lucky, you're unlucky.
It means Bayern's upcoming opponents Mainz will head to Munich with a negative run of nine Bundesliga games without a win. Since their 4-1 victory against FC Augsburg in mid-September (Matchday 4), the Zero-fivers have picked up just two points, and their meagre haul of six points with nine defeats after 13 matchdays is also synonymous with the worst record in the club's Bundesliga history.
Urs Fischer succeeds Bo Henriksen
Even before the 1-0 defeat to Mönchengladbach, the FSV management had already made the decision to part ways with coach Bo Henriksen. The Dane had taken over the club almost two years ago in a similarly precarious situation, led it to safety and then took it all the way to the UEFA Conference League last season. But after the highs, Mainz's wild rollercoaster ride took a downward turn, and following the appointment of U23 coach Benjamin Hoffmann on an interim basis, the Swiss Urs Fischer will now take his seat in the dugout for the first time as new head coach in the game in Munich.
Despite already being five points off the relegation play-off spot, there is hope that Fischer will be able to keep the team in the league. "There are still 21 games and a lot of points to play for. Mainz are familiar with this situation and have survived it once already," explained the new boss during his unveiling. The 59-year-old's composure for the difficult rescue mission is clear to see. "I'm not a volcano, that doesn't suit me," said Fischer about himself. Especially as the successes during his previous stint at 1. FC Union Berlin speak for themselves: He transformed the capital city club from a middling second division team into an established Bundesliga side and even Champions League participants.
Similar to uncontrolled emotional outbursts on the touchline, we shouldn’t expect Urs Fischer to make any radical changes to Mainz's playing system for the time being. He doesn’t want to change too much, Fischer confirmed: "The boys need something they can hold on to." After all, the team have the quality to stay in the league: "The majority of the squad finished sixth last season and were in the battle for the Champions League spots for a long time. They can't have forgotten how to play football," he added.
Back to defensive stability
In the past, the Swiss coach's style of play was based on having a solid back line, so it should be safe to say the main focus for the new start will be on rectifying the defensive woes. Mainz haven't scored in the league since February, or in 24 games. That's not only the league record, but also the club's current negative record. Daniel Batz, actually Mainz's third-choice goalkeeper, came close to keeping a clean sheet last weekend and, after his impressive saves against Gladbach, will probably also deputise for injured first-choice keeper Robin Zentner at the Allianz Arena.
Overall, the 24 goals Mainz have conceded this season do not make for good reading, but they're also not significantly higher than the league average of 21. The experienced defence of Stefan Bell (34), Danny da Costa (31), Andreas Hanche-Olsen (28), Maxim Leitsch (27) and Dominik Kohr (31), who is currently serving a red-card suspension, has already proven itself in a relegation battle. In addition, Fischer will come across principles at Mainz that already proved their worth during his time at Union - including “being awkward and tireless”, explained the coach. These are qualities that can also be employed against the best Bundesliga attack in history (FC Bayern with 49 goals after 13 games).
Problem area: the attack
Mainz's biggest problem this season has been their attack. In the last four Bundesliga games, the Zero-fivers have produced just one goal, when defender Danny da Costa scored at Hoffenheim. Mainz's current tally of just 11 goals after 13 games is only marginally better than 19 years ago, when they were relegated in 2006/07 (ten). Even more striking is the fact that FSV have failed to score before the break in three of their last four games and, with an average of fewer than 11 shots on target (17th in the league), pose far too little goal threat. On top of that, their discipline is poor: Mainz have seen the most sending-offs in the league and finished the game with ten players twice in the last three matchdays alone.
So there are a few things that can be tweaked for Mainz 05's new start. However, having to face the undisputed leaders as the bottom side is surely the most difficult task that Urs Fischer could have expected on his debut in the dugout. But the visitors actually have nothing to lose - and that's precisely why Bayern must not underestimate them on Sunday.
There was some good news ahead of the clash with Mainz:
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