Kiezkicker in crisis mode: How dangerous are St. Pauli for Bayern?

On paper, the situation ahead of the away match at FC St. Pauli looks clear-cut: FC Bayern travel as league leaders to the team in 16th position. Opponents with backs against the wall, who have gone weeks without a win – it sounds like a routine task. But impressions can be misleading.

St. Pauli are strong runners, dangerous from set pieces and are fighting for their lives. It’s precisely because of this mixture that the German record champions should in no way underestimate the Kiezkicker ahead of the clash at the Millerntor on Saturday evening (18:30 CEST). Find out what Bayern should be prepared for in the far north in our opposition profile.

The second season in the Bundesliga after promotion is always the hardest, as Hamburger SV legend Uwe Seeler once said. St. Pauli can attest to that: last season they finished 14th, now they’re much closer to relegation than they were during their first campaign. The current reality is 16th place and 25 points after 28 matchdays, the club’s third-worst showing in the German top flight – only in 2001/02 (21) and 1977/78 (22 converted) did they have fewer points at this stage.

Four points currently separate the Hamburg club from an automatic relegation spot, while they’re two away from outright safety. It's no surprise, therefore, that Alexander Blessin didn’t accept the 1-1 draw at Union Berlin on Sunday. “Satisfied is the wrong word,” said the head coach. Three points would’ve been a big boost, particularly with second-from-bottom VfL Wolfsburg losing the day before. “We’ll take the point, though – it helps us in any case.”

St. Pauli are without a win since a 2-1 victory at home to Werder Bremen at the end of February. Blessin’s side are particularly struggling in attack at the moment: they’ve not scored more than once in any of their last five games, while their expected goals value has been less than one in four of those encounters. Overall St. Pauli have scored the fewest goals in the Bundesliga this season (25).

That’s also to do with the team’s defensive-minded playing philosophy. With 45 goals conceded to date, captain Jackson Irvine and Co have been more solid at the back than most of their rivals in the bottom half of the table. Mathias Pereira Lage described the remaining six matches as “finals” for good reason – after the meeting with Bayern, they face four of their direct rivals in the relegation battle in Köln, Heidenheim, Mainz and Wolfsburg.

The Hamburg side have nothing to give away against the league leaders on Saturday, either. There’s no denying that Bayern are favourites and that they’ll most likely have control of possession. The hosts have 43 percent possession on average this season – only Union Berlin see less of the ball (40 percent).

That being the case, St. Pauli’s attacking play is heavily centred on dead balls. The Kiezkicker are the only team in the Bundesliga who have scored over half of their goals from set-piece situations (13 of 25), including eight of the last 11. And they can’t be accused of lack of effort, as St. Pauli have racked up 3,350.7 kilometres to date. Only three Bundesliga sides have run more – Bayern one of them (3,450 km).

In terms of personnel, Blessin has favoured rotation over consistency in recent weeks. The 52-year-old has used five different line-ups in the last five matches, with only the 3-4-2-1 formation staying the same.

One man who has been ever-present is Bosnia and Herzegovina goalkeeper Nikola Vasilj. In front of him, Karol Mets, Hauke Wahl and Eric Smith, who missed the trip to Berlin due to injury, could form the back three. Adam Dzwigala would be the alternative if Smith isn’t fit. In the wide positions, Blessin is likely to go with the more defensive pairing of Lars Ritzka on the left and Arkadiusz Pyrka on the right.

Pace on the counter – and a big hole in the middle

Pereira Lage is also an option on the left, offering speed in behind. With 562 sprints and 1,957 intensive runs, he’s among the top eight players in the Bundesliga in this department. The Portuguese could equally line up in attack – alongside Joel Chima Fujita and top scorer Daniel Sinani (five goals, three assists) – and try to hit on the counter against a Bayern side who are so good on the ball.

The biggest headache for Blessin is the double pivot, with captain Irvine suspended after his sending-off against Union and James Sands a doubt because of an ankle injury. Mathias Rasmussen and Connor Metcalfe are most likely to take their places in the middle.

St. Pauli between risk and chance

Ahead of the clash with Bayern, St. Pauli are an example of the reality for many promoted teams in the difficult second year: defensively organised, hardworking with clear strengths from set pieces – but not forceful enough going forward and under pressure in the table. These are decisive games for Blessin’s men in the coming weeks.

From Bayern’s point of view, that means opponents who will fight for every ball, are always a threat from set plays and have nothing to lose in the atmosphere of the Millerntor. For St. Pauli a potential turning point; for the record champions a task where they’re clear favourites, but with no room for negligence.

The facts ahead of the clash with St. Pauli: