How FC Bayern can still progress directly to the Champions League round of 16

Ahead of the final match of the league phase of the Champions League against Slovan Bratislava (Wednesday, 21:00 CET), FC Bayern are sitting in 15th place in Europe's premier club competition with 12 points and a goal difference of 17:11. Qualification for the play-offs is already assured. However, a leap into the top eight of the table and thus direct qualification for the round of 16 is still possible - at least mathematically.

Home win against Bratislava is a must

"We have to win our game - that's what we can influence. We have to beat Bratislava and, if possible, do something about our goal difference. Then we'll have to see how the others perform," said board member for sport Max Eberl, outlining the starting position: Bayern need a home win against Bratislava to maintain their theoretical chance of finishing in the top eight. We explain what else needs to happen for FCB to progress directly to the last 16 of Europe's premier club competition.

On the final matchday, the men from Munich would have to overtake a total of seven teams that currently sit ahead of them. In addition, the three teams with the same number of points (Real Madrid, Juventus and Glasgow Celtic), who are currently behind Bayern due to their inferior goal difference, mustn't be allowed to overtake FCB. We provide you with an overview of which opponents the teams ahead of FC Bayern will face on the final matchday and what needs to happen for Bayern to overtake them.

14th place: Borussia Dortmund - 12 points, 19:11 goal difference

BVB host Shakhtar Donetsk (27th place, seven points) on the final matchday. Should Dortmund win their home game against the Ukrainians, FC Bayern will need a win by three goals more than the Borussians. In the event of a draw or a Dortmund defeat, FCB would overtake them with a home win.

13th place: Brest - 13 points, 10:8 goal difference

Brest host Real Madrid (16th place, 12 points) on Wednesday to wrap up the league phase. In their first appearance in the Champions League, the French side must not win their home game against Los Blancos if FC Bayern are to overtake them. In addition, Real must not win the game by a higher margin than FCB achieve against Bratislava, as the Spaniards would otherwise overtake Bayern, as described above.

12th place: Lille - 13 points, 11:9 goal difference
11th place: Feyenoord - 13 points, 17:15 goal difference

Lille host Feyenoord on Wednesday. This match is particularly important because both teams are ahead of FC Bayern in the table. If the game in Lille ends in a draw, a home win would see the Munich side overtake both teams. Should there be a winner in the encounter, FCB would at least overtake the losing team.

10th place: Monaco - 13 points, 13:10 goal difference 

Monaco visit fourth-placed Inter Milan for the final game of the league phase. The Italians need one more point to be sure of finishing among the top eight teams in the final standings. Should Monaco fail to win in Milan, FC Bayern would overtake them in the table with a win against Bratislava.

9th place: Aston Villa - 13 points, 9:4 goal difference

Aston Villa host Glasgow Celtic (18th place, 12 points) on Wednesday. A draw or defeat for the English side would see Bayern leapfrog Aston Villa with a win against Bratislava. However, Celtic must not win the game by five goals more than FCB in their clash with the Slovakians, as the Scots would otherwise overtake the Reds.

8th place: Bayer 04 Leverkusen - 13 points, 13:7 goal difference

Leverkusen host Sparta Prague (29th place, 4 points) on the final matchday. Should the game end in a draw or a defeat for Leverkusen, a win for FC Bayern would see them leapfrog the Werkself.

7th place: Atalanta - 14 points, 18:4 goal difference

On Wednesday, Atalanta travel to Barcelona (second place, 18 points), who have already secured a top-eight finish. Were the Italians to lose, Bayern would leapfrog them with a home win against Bratislava. If the game in Barcelona ends in a draw, FCB will need an eight-goal win against the Slovakians to overtake Atalanta.

6th place: AC Milan, 15 points, 13:9 goal difference

Milan travel to Dinamo Zagreb (26th place, 8 points) on the final matchday of the league phase. If the Italians lose, FCB could still overtake AC with a win against Bratislava.

5th place: Atlético Madrid, 15 points, 16:11 goal difference

Atlético are away to Salzburg on Wednesday. Should the Spaniards lose in the city of Mozart, Bayern would overtake Atlético with a home win against Bratislava.

Improbable, but not impossible!

FC Bayern would have to overtake seven of the ten teams listed in the table on the final matchday in order to qualify directly for the last 16 of the Champions League. A scenario that is improbable, but definitely not impossible. "The good thing is that we haven't been knocked out," said CEO Jan-Christian Dreesen after the 3-0 defeat at Feyenoord on the last matchday. "Reaching the top eight will be difficult or even impossible - it would be a miracle," Dreesen continued. But as Katja Ebstein sang so beautifully: "Wunder gibt es immer wieder!" (Miracles happen all the time!)

And if not at FC Bayern, where else?

The facts on the game against Bratislava: