Where Leipzig are dangerous – and how Bayern find solutions

FC Bayern face a real test right at the start of the second half of the Bundesliga season. The away match at RB Leipzig is a repeat of a meeting that ended in an emphatic result at the start of the season: with a 6-0 win in the season opener, the Munich men made an early statement. However, this result doesn’t take away from the fact that Leipzig have enjoyed a very strong first half of the campaign. Despite some isolated setbacks, head coach Ole Werner’s side have appeared solid, energetic and tactically clear – and after 17 matchdays find themselves in a Champions League spot. The task in Saxony will therefore be a very different one to that in August. Find out here what Michael Olise and Co can expect in Saturday’s primetime clash.

Stability despite setbacks

Despite two significant dampers in the battle for the Champions League places, RB Leipzig are still in a good position at the halfway point of the season. Nevertheless, the euphoria after reaching the quarter-finals of the DFB Cup and the thumping 6-0 win at home to Eintracht Frankfurt in the league quickly died away just before Christmas with back-to-back 3-1 defeats in the final two games of the year. The two losses at Union Berlin and against Bayer 04 Leverkusen halted RB’s momentum but they remain in a stable position in the table, and after Wednesday’s 2-0 victory at home to SC Freiburg they sit in third place – with a game in hand – and therefore in an automatic Champions League qualification spot. Werner sees a development to be built on in the new year: “We’ve set a lot of things in motion.”

The likelihood of the 37-year-old coach shaking up his fundamental approach for Saturday’s primetime match is rather low. Leipzig have completed a largely successful first half of the campaign with a 4-3-3 formation, with Werner also relying on continuity in his team selection. Protecting goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi is a settled back four of Willi Orban, Castello Lukeba, captain David Raum and either Ridle Baku or Kosta Nedeljković at right-back. In front of them, RB set up with a well-balanced midfield of defensive specialist Nicolas Seiwald, box-to-box player Xaver Schlager and the technically gifted and creative Christoph Baumgartner. The jewel in Leipzig’s game is the wingers: rising star Yan Diomande is in contention again following his involvement in the Africa Cup of Nations, as is Antonio Nusa. In Johan Bakayoko and Tidiam Gomis, Werner has two other high-quality options for the wide positions. Up front, the physically strong Brazilian Rômulo is the preferred choice, with Conrad Harder a more elegant alternative.

Wingers the aces in Leipzig’s philosophy

While RB Leipzig normally line up in a classic 4-3-3, the interpretation of this system is very open in possession. In build-up, the full-backs do not simply push forward along the line, but deliberately move diagonally inwards and forwards. At the same time, the central midfielder drops between or alongside the centre-backs. This creates a flexible back three with link-up players positioned in front of them – a build-up that opens up many passing angles and allows Leipzig to establish an early presence in the half-spaces. From this structure, RB look to purposefully get forward without losing their shape.

Leipzig’s game is clearly geared towards the flanks. The wingers initially stick to the touchline to make the pitch as wide as possible. Then specific movements are triggered in the half-space: a winger cuts inside, a full-back makes a diagonal run in behind or a central midfielder pushes forward. The aim is to pull the opposition's defensive line apart and then create isolated duels at high speed. This approach is particularly effective after cross-field passes because Leipzig then hit a disorganised defence with pace and dynamism.

For FC Bayern, that means one thing in particular: covering the wings shouldn’t be the job of the full-backs alone. Backward pressing and neat shifting of the midfielders close to the ball will be crucial to avoid being constantly outnumbered.

Tactical variability and aggressive counter-pressing

The Saxony side’s pressing is closely interconnected to their own possession. They want to win the ball high up the pitch because it enables short routes to goal. Deep runs without the ball, aggressive pressing and clearly defined pressing zones ensure that Leipzig are immediately onto their opponents after losing the ball. With the full-backs tucked in, there are lots of players close to the centre – an advantage in counter-pressing that makes it difficult for the opponents to break free cleanly. This leads to clear requirements for Kompany's team: a clean first touch and clear decision-making to avoid getting into these pressure situations.

Leipzig are by no means rigid in this; they can also adapt their structure during a match. Sometimes a full-back will operate much deeper and become part of a back three while the defensive midfielder pushes further up. That not only alters the build-up shape but also poses new questions for the opponents’ press. Wingers must find other ways, roles shift. As a result, Bayern will have to remain flexible and adjust their own pressing line according to the situation, rather than relying on fixed patterns.

Bayern’s answers and the key to success

Jonathan Tah and Co can use their own courage to attack the ball here. With high, intense pressing, they can try to steer Leipzig's build-up play early on and isolate the diagonal movements of the full-backs. It will be important for the front line not only to run at the opposition, but also to consistently close down passing lanes into the centre. If they succeed in forcing Leipzig to play long balls or uncontrolled passes, RB's play will lose structure – and thus its effectiveness.

In possession, the Bavarians can demonstrate their specific strengths. Inverted full-backs will help to bypass Leipzig's initial press and gain control in the centre. From there, the game can be deliberately shifted to the wings in order to tie up Leipzig's wingers and the two eights in the half-space. In addition, a strong centre-forward like Harry Kane can act as a link between the lines, nullifying Leipzig's counter-pressing. It will be crucial to immediately close down the space after losing possession – because only by stifling Leipzig's transitions can RB's game be deprived of one of its most important levers.